When an IPO is open for subscription, the BSE and NSE publish live subscription data multiple times a day. By the close of day 3, this data has historically been one of the strongest predictors of listing performance. Here is how to interpret it.
The Three Investor Categories
QIB (Qualified Institutional Buyers) — Mutual funds, FIIs, insurance companies. They do the deepest due diligence and are allocated 50% of the issue in Mainboard IPOs. Strong QIB subscription is the most bullish signal.
NII/HNI (Non-Institutional Investors / High Net Worth Individuals) — These are individuals applying for more than ₹2 lakh worth of shares. They receive 15% of the issue. NII subscription often runs extremely high (50x–300x) because HNIs take loans to bid, chasing allotment.
Retail Individual Investors (RII) — Investors applying for up to ₹2 lakh. They receive 35% of the issue. A 1x–3x retail subscription is normal; anything above 10x is strong.
Reading the Numbers
A total subscription of 10x means the IPO received bids for 10 times the shares available. The overall subscription combines all three categories weighted by their allocation. IPOLyst pulls this data from Groww and displays QIB, NII, Retail, and Total subscription for each IPO.
What Numbers Suggest a Strong Listing?
- QIB > 20x: Institutional conviction — strongest signal
- Total > 30x: Very high demand across all categories
- Retail > 10x: Retail enthusiasm — tends to drive day-1 listing pop
The Allotment Probability
Higher subscription = lower allotment probability per application. For retail, SEBI mandates a lottery system when oversubscribed. At 30x retail subscription, each applicant has roughly 1-in-30 odds. Applying from multiple family member accounts (each with a separate PAN and Demat) is a legal way to improve combined odds.