Every IPO site in India publishes a grey market premium. Almost none of them go back afterwards and tell you whether it was right. We think that is the wrong way round, so here is our August 2026 scorecard: 37 IPOs listed last month, we published a GMP for every single one of them before it listed, and this is what actually happened — including the five we got badly wrong.
The short version: GMP called the direction correctly 81% of the time, but the number that should actually change how you apply has nothing to do with GMP accuracy at all. It is the gap between mainboard and SME, and in August it was enormous.
August 2026 in five numbers
- 37 IPOs listed between 1 and 31 August 2026, and all 37 had a published GMP to score against.
- 29 of 37 (78%) closed their listing day above the issue price.
- GMP predicted the correct direction — up or down — in 30 of 37 cases (81%).
- 28 of 37 (76%) landed within 10 percentage points of the GMP we published.
- The median listing gain was +13.4%. The average was +18.3%.
That 78% success rate is better than our longer-term record. Across all 89 IPOs we have tracked to listing day, 72% closed above issue price. August was a genuinely strong month, not a typical one, and it is worth saying that plainly before anyone reads these numbers as a baseline expectation.
The board mattered far more than the GMP
Split the same 37 listings by board and you get two completely different markets. This is the single most useful thing in the whole dataset.
Mainboard: 16 listed, 16 profitable
- Every mainboard IPO in August closed above its issue price. All 16 of them.
- Median gain: +19.6%. Average gain: +22.5%.
- The worst mainboard outcome all month was Horizon Industrial Parks at +0.42% — barely positive, but still not a loss.
SME: 21 listed, 13 profitable
- 13 of 21 closed above issue price. Six listed below it, and two listed exactly flat.
- Median gain: +4.4%. Average gain: +15.1%.
- The worst outcomes were Sham Foam and Fascinate Textiles, both at −20.0%.
Look carefully at the SME numbers, because they contain a trap that catches a lot of retail investors. The average of +15.1% looks respectable — not far off the mainboard figure. But that average is propped up almost entirely by two outliers: Credent Connect N Care at +90% and Technocrats Plasma Systems at +74.2%. Strip the distortion out by using the median instead, and the typical SME listing returned +4.4%, against +19.6% on the mainboard.
Now add the cost of entry. SEBI sets the minimum application for an SME IPO at ₹2 lakh. In August, SME minimums ranged from ₹2.16 lakh to ₹2.82 lakh. Mainboard lots across the same month cost between ₹14,450 and ₹15,000. So the SME investor was asked to commit roughly fifteen times more capital, for a median return under a quarter of the mainboard's, with a one-in-three chance of losing money outright.
That is not an argument against SME investing as such — the top of the SME table produced the single best listing of the month. It is an argument for sizing and selection. If you are applying to SME issues, our SME IPO section tracks subscription and GMP for every live SME issue separately.
Where GMP got it right
GMP's real strength is directional. In 30 of 37 cases it correctly told you whether the stock would open above or below its issue price, and in 28 cases it landed within 10 percentage points of the eventual gain. For a signal drawn from an informal, unregulated market with no reporting obligations, that is a genuinely useful hit rate.
It was at its most reliable in the mid-range. Where GMP sat between roughly 10% and 40%, the actual result usually landed close by: Ardee Industries at +32% GMP listed at +35.8%; Shiprocket at +37% listed at +35.1%; Anawil Wire at +21% listed at +22.1%; G.V. Electricals at +19% listed at +21.5%. None of those needed a forecast — the grey market had already worked it out.
Where GMP got it wrong
Here are the five biggest misses of the month, stated as the gap in percentage points between what GMP implied and what the listing actually delivered.
- Sham Foam — GMP +2%, listed −20.0% (a 22.0 point miss).
- Poojaa Precision — GMP +78%, listed +56.2% (21.9 points short).
- Fascinate Textiles — GMP 0%, listed −20.0% (20.0 points).
- Propshop Events — GMP 0%, listed −17.4% (17.4 points).
- LAPL Automotive — GMP +53%, listed +43.6% (9.4 points short).
Every one of those five was an SME issue. And four of the five share a revealing pattern: GMP was flat or near zero going in. It had already flagged that there was no grey market enthusiasm. What it failed to do was predict how far these stocks would fall once listed. The signal correctly said "no demand" — it simply had no way of expressing "and it will drop 20%".
That distinction matters for how you read a low GMP. A GMP of zero is not a prediction of a flat listing. It is an absence of a prediction, and in August an absent signal on an SME issue was very often followed by a double-digit loss.
The surprise: GMP understated more often than it overstated
This is where August broke from our longer-term pattern. Across all 89 listings we have tracked, GMP overstates the eventual gain 46% of the time — the familiar complaint that grey market numbers run hot. In August the opposite happened. Twenty listings beat the GMP we published, sixteen fell short, and one landed exactly on it.
The biggest beats were substantial:
- Credent Connect N Care — GMP +45%, listed +90.0%. A 45 point beat, and the best listing of the month.
- Technocrats Plasma Systems — GMP +53%, listed +74.2%.
- Oneindig Technologies — GMP +7%, listed +25.0%.
- Behari Lal Engineering — GMP +47%, listed +63.2%, the strongest mainboard result of the month.
- Technocraft Ventures — GMP +20%, listed +34.0%.
One month does not overturn a multi-month pattern, and we would not advise anyone to start treating GMP as conservative on the strength of 37 listings. But it is a useful corrective to the assumption that grey market premiums are always inflated. In a strong month with heavy oversubscription, they can lag the real demand.
How to actually use GMP after reading this
Three practical conclusions come out of the August data.
1. Treat GMP as a direction, not a price target
It was right about up-or-down 81% of the time and right about the magnitude far less often. Use it to decide whether an issue has demand behind it. Do not use it to calculate your expected profit, and certainly do not size a position on the assumption that a 50% GMP means a 50% gain.
2. A zero or near-zero GMP on an SME issue is a warning, not a neutral
Four of our five worst misses were exactly this setup. If the grey market is showing no interest in an SME issue days before it lists, the realistic downside is not "flat" — in August it was routinely −17% to −20%.
3. Check the board before you check the GMP
A mainboard IPO with a modest 10% GMP had a better August than an SME issue with a 50% GMP, once you account for the failure rate and the capital committed. The board is the first filter. The GMP is the second.
We keep live grey market premiums for every open and upcoming issue on our IPO GMP tracker, updated through the day, with the number of sources each reading is drawn from shown alongside it.
If you want the background on how grey market premiums are formed and why they move through the subscription window, we cover it in our guide to what IPO GMP actually is.
And for the reliability question across a longer sample than one month, see how GMP compares to the final listing price.
What lists next
Twenty IPOs that subscribed in August list in early September, and their GMPs are live predictions rather than results — they will be scored in next month's card. The strongest going in are Tempsens Instruments at +110%, Kwick Forensic Solutions at +90%, Hy-Tech Engineers at +70%, Paluck Technologies at +63% and ESDS Software at +61%.
Whether those hold up is the whole point of publishing this scorecard: we will tell you either way. If you are planning to sell on listing day, our listing day strategy guide covers when the first-hour price typically settles.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate was IPO GMP in August 2026?
Across 37 IPOs that listed in August 2026, GMP predicted the correct direction — whether the stock would list above or below its issue price — in 30 cases, or 81%. It landed within 10 percentage points of the actual listing gain in 28 cases, or 76%. GMP understated the eventual gain on 20 listings and overstated it on 16.
How many IPOs listed at a profit in August 2026?
29 of the 37 IPOs that listed in August 2026 closed their first day above the issue price, a success rate of 78%. The median gain across all 37 was +13.4% and the average was +18.3%. The best performer was Credent Connect N Care at +90%; the worst were Sham Foam and Fascinate Textiles, both at −20%.
Were mainboard or SME IPOs better in August 2026?
Mainboard, by a wide margin. All 16 mainboard IPOs that listed in August 2026 closed above their issue price, with a median gain of +19.6%. Of the 21 SME IPOs, 13 were profitable, six listed below issue price and two listed flat, with a median gain of just +4.4%. SME issues also require a minimum application of roughly ₹2 lakh against about ₹15,000 for a mainboard lot.
Does a zero GMP mean the IPO will list flat?
No. In August 2026, a zero or near-zero GMP on an SME issue was frequently followed by a significant loss rather than a flat listing. Fascinate Textiles and Propshop Events both showed 0% GMP and listed at −20.0% and −17.4% respectively. A zero GMP indicates an absence of grey market demand, which is a warning signal, not a forecast of a neutral outcome.
Why does IPOLyst publish its own misses?
Because a grey market premium that is never checked against the outcome is not information, it is decoration. Every IPO listed in August 2026 is included in this scorecard, including the five where our published GMP was furthest from the eventual result. We publish the full record so readers can judge for themselves how much weight a GMP reading deserves.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. IPOLyst is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. The grey market is unofficial and unregulated, and a grey market premium is an indication of demand, not a promise of a listing price. Past listing performance does not predict future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a registered advisor before investing.