Thirteen IPOs have listed in September 2026 so far — every one of them had a GMP we published before it listed. Seven closed above issue price. That is 54%, down hard from August's 78%, and two of the thirteen didn't just miss the target, they listed in the opposite direction GMP predicted entirely.
The short version: GMP called the correct direction 11 times out of 13, but when it was wrong, it was badly wrong — and the "mainboard is safer" rule that held cleanly in August broke down this month.
September 2026 in five numbers
- 13 IPOs listed between 1 and 4 September 2026, and all 13 had a published GMP to score against.
- 7 of 13 (54%) closed their listing day above the issue price — down from 78% in August.
- GMP predicted the correct direction — up or down — in 11 of 13 cases (85%).
- In 2 of 13 cases, GMP was positive and the stock listed below issue price — a full direction reversal.
- The median listing gain was +2.96%. The average was +15.7%, pulled up almost entirely by ESDS Software's +76.46%.
That median is the number that matters more than the average. In August, the median and average told roughly the same story (+13.4% and +18.3%). In September they diverge sharply — one outsized winner is doing most of the work in the average, and the typical IPO this month barely cleared its issue price.
The board didn't protect you this month
August had a clean story: 16 of 16 mainboard IPOs were profitable, SME was the risky half. September muddies that completely.
Mainboard: 7 listed, 4 profitable
- 4 of 7 mainboard IPOs closed above issue price — 57%, barely better than a coin flip.
- Median gain: +15.0%. But that median sits between two mainboard IPOs that listed negative.
- Annu Projects (-27.27%) and Skyways Air Services (-10.14%) were both mainboard, and both had positive-to-flat GMP going in.
SME: 6 listed, 3 profitable
- 3 of 6 SME IPOs closed above issue price — exactly 50%.
- Median gain: +1.48%, close to flat.
- Kwick Forensic Solutions was the standout at +66.67%, on a GMP that had flagged +87% beforehand.
Put side by side, mainboard's 57% success rate and SME's 50% aren't meaningfully different this month. If you came into September assuming a mainboard listing was close to a guaranteed win because that's what August taught you, two of this month's mainboard IPOs would have proven that assumption wrong.
The two direction reversals
These are the calls that matter most, because a magnitude miss still gets the bet right — a direction reversal means GMP told you to expect a winner and you got a loser instead.
- Skyways Air Services — GMP was +24% (+₹33 over a ₹131-138 band). It listed at ₹124, a loss of -10.14%. A 34-point gap between prediction and outcome.
- Paluck Technologies — GMP was +19% (+₹9 over a ₹46-48 band). It listed at ₹46.80, down -2.50%. A 21.5-point gap.
Neither of these had a zero or negative GMP warning you in advance, unlike most of August's misses. Both showed real, positive grey market demand right up to listing, and both flipped anyway. There is no single visible pattern connecting them — different boards, different sectors, different issue sizes — which is itself the point: a positive GMP narrows your risk, it does not remove it.
Where GMP got it right
Five of the thirteen landed within about 5 percentage points of the eventual result — close enough that GMP had essentially already priced the listing:
- ESDS Software — GMP +72%, listed +76.46% (4.5 points).
- Priority Jewels — GMP +14%, listed +15.0% (1.0 point).
- Complete Sports & Management — GMP flat, listed +2.96% (2.96 points).
- ABH Healthcare — GMP flat, listed -2.94% (2.94 points).
- Madhur Knit Crafts Ltd — GMP +2%, listed flat (2.0 points).
Worth noting: three of those five had a GMP sitting at or near zero, and all three listed close to flat rather than falling hard — unlike August, where a near-zero SME GMP was routinely followed by a 15-20% loss. September's "no signal" reads were more honestly neutral this time.
GMP ran hot again — a snap-back from August
August broke from IPOLyst's longer-term pattern: GMP understated the eventual gain more often than it overstated it (20 beats vs 16 misses). September reverted hard the other way. GMP fell short of the actual result in 10 of 13 cases, and beat it in only 3 — Complete Sports & Management, ESDS Software, and Priority Jewels, all by narrow margins.
The biggest overstatements were substantial:
- Skyways Air Services — GMP +24%, listed -10.14% (34.1 points short).
- Hy-Tech Engineers Ltd — GMP +74%, listed +41.51% (32.5 points short).
- Paluck Technologies — GMP +19%, listed -2.50% (21.5 points short).
- Kwick Forensic Solutions — GMP +87%, listed +66.67% (20.3 points short) — still the second-best listing of the month despite the gap.
- Annu Projects — GMP -7%, listed -27.27% (20.3 points short of the already-negative call).
One month running hot after a month running cold is not evidence of a new rule — it is evidence that grey market sentiment moves with the broader mood of the subscription window, and September's window was simply less enthusiastic than August's turned out to justify.
How to actually use GMP after reading this
1. A positive GMP is not a floor
Skyways and Paluck both had real, positive, multi-source GMP right up to listing and still lost money. Treat GMP as evidence of demand at a point in time, not a guarantee that survives to listing day.
2. Don't assume mainboard is automatically the safer half
It was in August. In September, two of seven mainboard IPOs listed negative — a worse hit rate than SME had. Check the specific issue, not just which board it's listing on.
3. Watch the gap between average and median, not just one number
September's average gain (+15.7%) looks respectable purely because of one outsized winner. The median (+2.96%) is what a typical applicant actually experienced. When they diverge this much, the median is the more honest expectation to plan around.
We keep live grey market premiums for every open and upcoming issue on our IPO GMP tracker, updated through the day, with the number of sources each reading is drawn from shown alongside it.
This follows on from our August 2026 scorecard, where GMP had a much stronger month — useful context for how much these numbers can swing from one month to the next.
If you want the background on how grey market premiums are formed, we cover it in our guide to what IPO GMP actually is.
What lists next
Eleven IPOs open between 7 and 10 September, and their GMPs are live predictions rather than scored results — they'll be judged in next month's card. The strongest going in are Pranav Constructions at +33%, Kanohar Electricals at +32%, Prasol Chemicals at +21%, Karamtara Engineering Ltd and Veegaland Developers both at +19%.
Whether those hold up is the whole point of publishing this series every month. If you're planning to sell on listing day rather than hold, our listing day strategy guide covers when the first-hour price typically settles.
Frequently Asked Questions
How accurate was IPO GMP in September 2026?
Across the 13 IPOs that listed in September 2026 (through 4 September), GMP predicted the correct direction — above or below issue price — in 11 cases, or 85%. But 2 of those 13 saw a full direction reversal: a positive GMP followed by a negative listing. GMP fell short of the actual result in 10 cases and beat it in only 3, a reversal from August's pattern.
How many IPOs listed at a profit in September 2026?
7 of the 13 IPOs that listed in September 2026 (through 4 September) closed their first day above the issue price, a 54% success rate — down from 78% in August 2026. The median gain was +2.96% and the average was +15.7%. The best performer was ESDS Software at +76.46%; the worst was Annu Projects at -27.27%.
Were mainboard or SME IPOs better in September 2026?
Neither had a clear edge. 4 of 7 mainboard IPOs (57%) were profitable versus 3 of 6 SME IPOs (50%). This is a sharp change from August 2026, when all 16 mainboard listings were profitable against 13 of 21 SME listings — mainboard was not the safer bet in September.
Which September 2026 IPOs had a GMP direction reversal?
Skyways Air Services (GMP +24%, listed -10.14%) and Paluck Technologies (GMP +19%, listed -2.50%) both had positive grey market premium right up to listing and still closed below issue price on debut.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. IPOLyst is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. The grey market is unofficial and unregulated, and a grey market premium is an indication of demand, not a promise of a listing price. Past listing performance does not predict future results. Please conduct your own research or consult a registered advisor before investing.